This is what a weather forecast chart looks like when the surf is going to stay small to flat
A phantom background swell might show up for a few hours tomorrow (Friday) at some point and maybe again on Saturday. Besides that, Rincon is looking to stay flat until the end of the month. December is set to rage! The models are throwing non-stop storm action and some of them are bound to be swell makers. Granted, the majority will push up and away from our island and throw swell at Europe, but not all of them. Have fun, don’t lose your mind. I hope we get the phantom pulses. I need to surf! If all else fails, the North side of the island should continue to have some bumpy chest to head high waves for the next week or so. The mornings could clean up a bit, just don’t expect oil-slick glass.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.