Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Nov 8, 2021

Solid NW swell on the way!

This swell has a lot of west in it and is being generated by a storm right in our prime cold-front swell window. I’m expecting a classic cold-front swell with this one with at least 5 days of quality surf. Tomorrow should start out fun at the most exposed breaks with some chest high surf. By the end of the day the size should grow. Unfortunately we’ve had a horrible pattern of west wind every afternoon and evening for a while now. If this pattern persists, no matter what any forecast model tells you, we will ALWAYS have west wind starting at noon through sundown. This is what we have observed in reality just about every day for the past few months. SW wind on the west coast of Rincon and NW wind on the north coast of Rincon. Other parts of the island don’t seem as affected by this new pattern. We used to see Easterly trade winds and I hope that happens again one day. For right now, don’t be surprised if the conditions deteriorate every afternoon at every Rincon break. Will this front finally break us free? Will the high pressure building in behind the front set the winds back to normal? We’ll have to wait and see. There will definitely be no shortage of swell in the water though. Expect to see Tres Palmas breaking by Wednesday with a lot of tucked away spots working as well. The main breaks will probably be around double overhead. Thursday will only see a slight drop in size and probably an increase in wave quality. double overhead sets will still probably run through every now and then. Friday will begin the slow decline into the weekend where overhead and head high surf will linger on. I expect this weekend to be pretty rough as far as crowds go. There has been no off-season.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.