Yup, arms are officially dead. More surf on the way too!
We have had a steady run of perfect waves all day long on the north side of Rincon. The winds have kept a strong southerly flow which has kept conditions glassy just about the entire day for north facing beaches. Just about all the spots in Puerto Rico have been firing. Right now it looks like Saturday will take a break and be more of a surf lessons and kids day with smaller knee high conditions (unless some NW swell comes in early). Sunday the new NW pulse from Joaquin should start showing up with waves in the chest to head high range with bigger sets. With Hurricane Joaquin out in the ocean, a coldfront pulling off the states, and a new low in the open Atlantic generating gale force winds, we should remain chest high or bigger with south winds (or dead winds) for pretty much all of next week. Amazing! NE swell from the developing low mixed with NW Joaquin swell and some N fetch from the coldfront will mean multiple wave sets from different angles. There should be plenty of waves for everyone.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.