Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 30, 2015

Hurricane Joaquin Strengthens – More surf on the way!

Hurricane Joaquin could strengthen to a category 3 right in our prime swell window over the weekend! But that’s not all – we have a coldfront pulling off the states and another tropical blob trying to form almost due north of PR. Basically we’re looking at multiple swells from multiple angles with south winds for the next 5 days and possibly beyond that. All of the north facing beaches in Puerto Rico should be on fire! The north side of the island should be barrel fest. We’ll start off with some of Joaquin’s NW swell tomorrow in the head high plus range that should last until the Coldfront pulls off and sends a NE swell from way out in the Atlantic for early next week.

Stay hydrated! The heat is going to be intense!

The temperatures are extremely hot right now in PR. Whenever the winds are dead or from the south we stay hot, humid, and stagnant. Drink plenty of water and don’t die of dehydration. Seriously, it’s going to be hot (it already has been).

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.