Tropical Storm Joaquin forms right in our swell window!
Right now he’s serving to keep the winds dead as a longer period NE swell fills in from a cold-front, but he could become so much more than that. The wind shear is supposed to lighten up tomorrow which would give Joaquin a chance to strengthen and get more organized. If he does that and gets a bigger/symmetrical windfield we could be looking at a nice setup for a week of perfect waves. Right now there is plenty of swell in the water to keep us surfing here in Rincon for another 2-3 days. If Tropical Storm Joaquin does get his act together during that time, his swell will blend right in and keep the surf going off! This is all best case scenario, but I’m so stoked right now I can’t help but give everyone a heads up.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.