Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 14, 2019

Rincon to see two new swells back to back – YES!

Nothing makes you feel tired like not surfing for 2 months and then surfing nonstop for several days. Hopefully everyone has recuperated from the last major swell event and is ready for another week of waves. First up we have an early season coldfront bombing out in the open Atlantic. This will throw some long period NE swell at Puerto Rico Tuesday the 17th through Thursday the 19th. Before the NE swell even has a chance drop off, NW swell from Humberto (forecast to be a hurricane at the time) will show up Friday the 20th and last through the weekend. The weather responsible for the NE swell is already in place with a heavy fetch of N wind building in the North Atlantic. The only variable that has more chance for error is the NW swell from Humberto. Almost all of the models have been consistently giving a favorable forecast track of a easterly swing right in our swell window. However, the size and intensity of the storm will be important and the intensity forecast is a bit more uncertain. If the storm gets stronger than forecast and Tropical Storm Humberto turns into a stronger than forecast Hurricane, we will have huge waves. If Tropical Storm Humberto fails to to turn into Hurricane Humberto, no NW major NW swell will form. We might still see some background pulse under the less than ideal scenario mentioned prior, but not much more than a less than one day event of small waves. This time of year i watch satellite loops a lot. I’ll update the forecast again should i see any major changes, but for now it looks like we’re all surfing next week.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.